The results of the latest consensus forecast survey from the Pension Real Estate Association (PREA) show that respondents expect total unlevered return growth on commercial real estate assets traded at the institutional level to moderate in 2019. Respondents expect that total returns on all commercial property types, as represented by the NCREIF Property Index (NPI), will average 5.7 percent next year vs. 7.1 percent in 2018 and will decline to 4.4 percent in 2020.
Retail properties, on the other hand, will likely experience slightly higher returns in 2019, at 4.3 percent, indicating a 10-basis-point increase from 2018, in survey respondents’ estimate. . . . more