It's become a favorite holiday tradition around these parts: wait for the National Retail Federation annual holiday spending forecast each October, then write a few choice words about why their methodology is awful and their forecast track record is even worse.
case you missed it, the Federation said it expects holiday sales in
November and December (excluding autos, gas and restaurants) to
“increase a solid 3.6 percent to $655.8 billion — significantly higher
than the 10-year average of 2.5 percent and above the seven-year average
of 3.4 percent since recovery began in 2009.” Online retail is forecast
to increase between 7 percent and 10 percent.. . . more