Tuesday, November 22, 2016

Get in the Mood for Retail Forecasting Follies

Image result for retail sales holiday forecastIt's become a favorite holiday tradition around these parts: wait for the National Retail Federation annual holiday spending forecast each October, then write a few choice words about why their methodology is awful and their forecast track record is even worse.

In case you missed it, the Federation said it expects holiday sales in November and December (excluding autos, gas and restaurants) to “increase a solid 3.6 percent to $655.8 billion — significantly higher than the 10-year average of 2.5 percent and above the seven-year average of 3.4 percent since recovery began in 2009.” Online retail is forecast to increase between 7 percent and 10 percent.. . . more

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