The last few days have brought a bunch of earnings reports from prominent retailers allowing us a window into consumer spending.
Last Thursday, the world’s largest retailer, Walmart (WMT), reported a surprising 1.5% drop in same store sales at U.S. Walmart stores. That is only the second drop (the other was -0.1%) I see in my data going back almost 10 years.
What does it mean? I think there are two interpretations of this. It can be argued that the drop in sales at Walmart is a result of an improving economy. As the stock, real estate and job markets improve, consumers are feeling better and have more money in their pockets. As a result, they are trading up, shopping at more expensive retailers instead of trading down to Walmart as they were in the depths of the recession. The other interpretation is that consumers are under so much pressure that they are cutting back even at discount stores like Walmart.
There is an obvious way to decide between these two interpretations. How are sales at other, higher-end, retailers?
This morning, Target (TGT) reported their second quarter earnings. Same store sales dropped a staggering 6.2% from the year ago period. Earnings held up pretty well as a result of lower costs of goods. During the boom years, there was a notable shift among consumers away from Walmart and towards Target. A classic Wall Street Journal article documented this trend: “Walmart Era Wanes Amid Big Shifts In Retail”, The Wall Street Journal, October 3, 2007, A1. But that trend has reversed during the great recession and the resulting “Walmart Economy”. . . .
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